← Serie B 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Arena
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 62% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 |
| Mantova win | 15% | 6.83 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Mantova −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Simone Trimboli · Mantova |
| 12' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Brignani · Mantova |
| 18' | ⚽ | Alessandro Debenedetti · Mantova |
| 24' | 🟨 | Leonardo Mancuso · Mantova |
| 30' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Brignani · Mantova |
| 30' | 🟥 | Fabrizio Brignani · Mantova |
| 45' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Reca · Spezia |
| 63' | 🟨 | Salvatore Elia · Spezia |
| 73' | 🟨 | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 74' | 🟨 | Matteo Solini · Mantova |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 421.00 | 544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1556.39 | 1478.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.59 | 2.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.80 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| league points | 37.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 4.91 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |