← Serie B 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Zufferli
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 38% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.90 |
| Brescia win | 29% | 3.44 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia +0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Modena +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.52 |
| Over | 37% | 2.65 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Fabio Gerli · Modena |
| 34' | ⚽ | Matthias Verreth · Brescia |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Dickmann · Brescia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Simone Santoro · Modena |
| 50' | ⚽ | Andrea Cistana · Brescia |
| 60' | 🟨 | Giacomo Olzer · Brescia |
| 72' | 🟨 | Edoardo Duca · Modena |
| 81' | 🟨 | Cristian Cauz · Modena |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) | Luca Magnino · Brescia |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kleis Bozhanaj · Modena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Mario Rigamonti |
| coach days | 25.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1438.96 | 1463.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.96 | 25.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 5.77 | 4.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |