← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Juve Stabia win | 38% | 31% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Cesena win | 29% | 40% | 3.46 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cesena −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Juve Stabia −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.54 |
| Over | 37% | 2.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti |