← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Collu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova win | 38% | 33% | 2.51 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 30% | 33% | 3.37 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Mantova −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Ebrima Darboe · Frosinone Calcio |
| 23' | ⚽ | Davide Bragantini · Mantova |
| 26' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Brignani · Mantova |
| 38' | ⚽ | Simone Trimboli · Mantova |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ilario Monterisi · Frosinone Calcio |
| 44' | ⚽ | Mattia Aramu · Mantova |
| 51' | 🟨 | Davide Bragantini · Mantova |
| 55' | ⚽ | Tjaš Begić · Frosinone Calcio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marco Festa · Mantova |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tjaš Begić · Frosinone Calcio |
| 71' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| 🟨 |
| David Wieser · Mantova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frank Tsadjout · Frosinone Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriele Bracaglia · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 539.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1431.80 | 1517.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.94 | -0.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 44.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| league points | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 23.27 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |