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Mantova 3–1 Frosinone Calcio

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Collu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mantova win38%2.51
Draw32%3.00
Frosinone Calcio win30%3.37

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio −0.2554%1.81
Mantova −0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Ebrima Darboe · Frosinone Calcio
23'⚽Davide Bragantini · Mantova
26'🟨Fabrizio Brignani · Mantova
38'⚽Simone Trimboli · Mantova
40'🟨Ilario Monterisi · Frosinone Calcio
44'⚽Mattia Aramu · Mantova
51'🟨Davide Bragantini · Mantova
55'⚽Tjaš Begić · Frosinone Calcio
60'🟨Marco Festa · Mantova
66'🟨Tjaš Begić · Frosinone Calcio
71'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
14Shots14
7On target5
1Corners8
19Fouls19
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMantovaFrosinone Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.29
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.480.66
cards avg (last 5)3.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Danilo Martelli
David Wieser
· Mantova
90'🟨Frank Tsadjout · Frosinone Calcio
90'🟨Gabriele Bracaglia · Frosinone Calcio
coach days539.0081.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.002.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.082.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.530.46
elo1464.891491.54
elo momentum (last 5)-0.701.82
eye test v10.43-0.31
eye trend v10.210.78
first sub minute (last 10)50.9044.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.20
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.30
keeper form v10.760.80
league points19.0016.00
league rank14.0019.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6076.60
possession avg (last 5)61.6037.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.20
season ppg1.120.94
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.2011.40
skill v11.50-0.86
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.40
state index-0.28-0.19
sterile dominance v11.01-1.17
threat rate (last 10)0.210.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.34
threat rate (last 5)0.240.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00