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Cittadella 0–0 Cremonese

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marcenaro

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win48%2.00
Draw29%3.30
Cittadella win23%4.69

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella +0.550%1.95
Cremonese +0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.80
Over47%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese
19'🟨Alessandro Salvi · Cittadella
25'🟨Francesco Amatucci · Cittadella
68'🟨Franco Vázquez · Cremonese
83'🟨Stefano Piccinini · Cittadella
88'🟨Dennis Johnsen · Cremonese
89'🟨Federico Casolari · Cittadella
90'🟨Marco Nasti · Cremonese

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots9
0On target4
2Corners4
17Fouls14
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCittadellaCremonese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.28
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.640.63
cards avg (last 5)3.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pier Cesare Tombolato
coach days75.0044.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.782.40
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.11
dominance (last 5)0.420.55
elo1376.251529.69
elo momentum (last 5)-16.04-30.85
eye test v1-0.650.12
eye trend v10.160.05
first sub minute (last 10)54.7045.50
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.18
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.25
keeper form v10.70—
league points14.0024.00
league rank19.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0082.80
possession avg (last 5)46.6056.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.200.23
season ppg0.881.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.402.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8014.60
skill v1-0.440.93
sot against avg (last 5)7.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
state index-1.07-0.16
sterile dominance v1-0.060.45
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40