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Cesena 2–1 Cosenza

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Galipò

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cesena win49%2.04
Draw29%3.50
Cosenza win22%4.43

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza −0.553%1.86
Cesena −0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'🟨Christos Kourfalidis · Cosenza
43'🟨Giacomo Calò · Cesena
45'🟨Alessandro Micai · Cosenza
45'⚽Elayis Tavsan · Cesena
57'⚽Tommaso Berti · Cesena
70'⚽Manuel Ricciardi · Cosenza
75'🟨Jonathan Klinsmann · Cesena
76'🟨Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
83'🟨Mirko Antonucci · Cesena
87'🟨Emanuele Adamo · Cesena
88'🟨Luca Strizzolo · Cosenza
90'🟨Sydney van Hooijdonk · Cesena
90'🟥Christian Kouan · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots14
5On target5
5Corners3
16Fouls17
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCesenaCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15—
box share (last 5)0.510.45
cards avg (last 5)2.603.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOrogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi
coach days166.00196.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)4.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.503.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.670.58
elo1469.021449.58
elo momentum (last 5)2.230.21
eye test v11.150.13
eye trend v10.010.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.0050.50
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35—
keeper form v10.660.78
league points22.0020.00
league rank7.0010.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6079.20
possession avg (last 5)56.2060.60
rest days7.006.91
scorer concentration0.250.21
season ppg1.381.25
shot diff avg (last 5)8.404.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.8017.60
skill v11.060.85
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.404.20
state index0.07-0.10
sterile dominance v10.350.37
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80