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Spezia 5–0 Cittadella

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia win59%1.63
Draw26%3.70
Cittadella win15%6.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia −0.7553%1.83
Cittadella −0.7547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Stefano Negro · Cittadella
34'⚽Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia
43'⚽ (og)Elhan Kastrati · Spezia
45'🟨Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia
45'🟨Stefano Piccinini · Cittadella
45'⚽ (pen)Salvatore Esposito · Spezia
53'⚽Salvatore Esposito · Spezia
54'🟨Federico Casolari · Cittadella
67'⚽Przemyslaw Wiśniewski · Spezia
70'🟨Simone Rabbi · Cittadella

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
18Shots8
10On target2
9Corners4
22Fouls12
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSpeziaCittadella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.630.68
cards avg (last 5)3.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Alberto Picco
coach days403.0068.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.10—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.682.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.12
dominance (last 5)0.540.47
elo1536.881385.39
elo momentum (last 5)15.22-5.45
eye test v10.02-0.74
eye trend v10.290.22
first sub minute (last 10)50.7056.00
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
keeper form v10.830.76
league points30.0014.00
league rank3.0019.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0076.60
possession avg (last 5)47.4046.20
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.370.20
season ppg2.000.93
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.60
skill v1-0.48-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.00
state index0.56-0.65
sterile dominance v1-0.670.00
threat rate (last 10)0.310.27
threat rate (last 3)0.320.23
threat rate (last 5)0.300.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60