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Cittadella 2–2 Juve Stabia

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Cosso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella win35%2.95
Juve Stabia win33%3.00
Draw31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia +051%1.92
Cittadella +049%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.54
Over37%2.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Simone Tronchin · Cittadella
21'⚽Francesco Amatucci · Cittadella
30'⚽Leonardo Candellone · Juve Stabia
32'🟨Yuri Rocchetti · Juve Stabia
38'⚽Francesco Folino · Juve Stabia
44'🟨Edoardo Masciangelo · Cittadella
45'⚽ (pen)Luca Pandolfi · Cittadella
51'🟨Stefano Piccinini · Cittadella
60'🟨Christian Pierobon · Juve Stabia
72'🟨Gabriele Artistico · Juve Stabia
76'🟨Matteo Angeli · Cittadella
90'🟨Marco Ruggero · Juve Stabia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
15Shots7
7On target4
5Corners3
22Fouls22
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCittadellaJuve Stabia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.27
box share (last 5)0.650.78
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
coach days60.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pier Cesare Tombolato
518.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.792.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.470.49
elo1386.271415.77
elo momentum (last 5)-16.14-9.07
eye test v1-0.98-0.42
eye trend v10.02-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)57.6054.10
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
keeper form v10.770.69
league points13.0018.00
league rank18.0010.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2074.20
possession avg (last 5)44.4051.60
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.33
season ppg0.931.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6012.20
skill v1-0.28-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.003.40
state index-0.78-0.60
sterile dominance v1-0.32-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.20