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Bari 3–2 Cittadella

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Bonacina

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari win52%1.84
Draw28%3.50
Cittadella win21%5.32

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bari −0.553%1.85
Cittadella −0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Kevin Lasagna · Bari
43'🟨Mehdi Dorval · Bari
45'⚽ (pen)Giuseppe Sibilli · Bari
45'⚽Raffaele Maiello · Bari
46'🟨Luca Pandolfi · Cittadella
52'⚽Lorenzo Carissoni · Cittadella
55'⚽Luca Pandolfi · Cittadella
82'🟨Simone Branca · Cittadella
83'🟨Matteo Angeli · Cittadella
84'🟨Lorenzo Carissoni · Cittadella
85'🟨Costantino Favasuli · Bari
89'🟨Boris Radunović · Bari

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
15Shots13
5On target3
7Corners8
19Fouls10
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBariCittadella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.20—
box share (last 5)0.560.63
cards avg (last 5)2.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale San Nicola
coach days176.0054.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.02
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.09
dominance (last 5)0.390.51
elo1486.101392.10
elo momentum (last 5)13.08-10.98
eye test v1-0.36-0.62
eye trend v10.17-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)50.9056.00
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.40—
keeper form v10.900.80
league points17.0013.00
league rank10.0018.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0080.20
possession avg (last 5)47.4046.20
rest days13.9114.00
scorer concentration0.200.29
season ppg1.311.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.601.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.0013.20
skill v10.170.01
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.60
state index0.08-0.49
sterile dominance v10.30-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.19
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20