← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Cesena win | 53% | 47% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Reggiana win | 19% | 27% | 5.88 | value: +57% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Reggiana −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Cesena −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi |