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Catanzaro 2–2 Mantova

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Monaldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Catanzaro win50%1.96
Draw28%3.50
Mantova win23%4.51

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mantova −0.551%1.93
Catanzaro −0.549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Stefano Scognamillo · Catanzaro
7'⚽Davide Bragantini · Mantova
23'🟨Matteo Solini · Mantova
26'⚽Pietro Iemmello · Catanzaro
37'🟨Antonio Fiori · Mantova
41'🟨Ilias Koutsoupias · Catanzaro
45'🟨Simone Trimboli · Mantova
60'🟥Stefano Cella · Mantova
63'🟨Sebastien De Maio · Mantova
65'⚽Davide Bragantini · Mantova
79'⚽Nicolò Buso · Catanzaro
87'🟨Nicolò Brighenti · Catanzaro
89'🟨Davis Mensah · Mantova

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots13
2On target7
8Corners3
15Fouls21
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCatanzaroMantova
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.26
box share (last 5)0.430.48
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
coach days145.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Nicola Ceravolo
511.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.152.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.03
dominance (last 5)0.500.38
elo1502.371476.02
elo momentum (last 5)12.46-2.80
eye test v10.44-0.52
eye trend v1-0.12-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)52.9054.10
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
keeper form v10.77—
league points15.0016.00
league rank14.0012.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.8087.40
possession avg (last 5)58.2063.80
rest days13.0013.91
scorer concentration0.330.20
season ppg1.151.23
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.8010.80
skill v11.391.81
sot against avg (last 5)2.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.80
state index0.13-0.35
sterile dominance v10.961.77
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.18
threat rate (last 5)0.230.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20