← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Perenzoni
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 49% | 48% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Mantova win | 24% | 24% | 4.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mantova +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cremonese +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Luca Ravanelli · Cremonese |
| 21' | 🟨 | Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese |
| 26' | 🟨 | Federico Bonazzoli · Cremonese |
| 28' | 🟨 | Davis Mensah · Mantova |
| 35' | 🟨 | Salvatore Burrai · Mantova |
| 47' | 🟨 | Michele Collocolo · Cremonese |
| 55' | 🟨 | Michele Castagnetti · Cremonese |
| 59' | ⚽ | Salvatore Burrai · Mantova |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luka Lochoshvili · Cremonese |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luka Lochoshvili · Cremonese |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 25 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mantova | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Danilo Martelli |
| 🟥 |
| Luka Lochoshvili · Cremonese |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 497.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1427.87 | 1548.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.60 | -13.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.07 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.07 | 28.57 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.90 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |