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Reggiana 0–1 Cosenza

← Serie B 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Monaldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggiana win40%2.45
Draw31%3.20
Cosenza win29%3.57

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza −0.2552%1.88
Reggiana −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Alessandro Fontanarosa · Reggiana
12'🟨Christian Kouan · Cosenza
31'🟨Aldo Florenzi · Cosenza
39'⚽Manuel Ricciardi · Cosenza
43'🟨Alessandro Caporale · Cosenza
54'🟨Luca Strizzolo · Cosenza
59'🟨Andrea Meroni · Reggiana
63'🟨Manuel Marras · Reggiana
65'🟨Manuel Ricciardi · Cosenza
79'🟨Alessandro Sersanti · Reggiana
90'🟨Christos Kourfalidis · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots7
2On target3
3Corners1
17Fouls18
4Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReggianaCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.26
box share (last 5)0.580.59
cards avg (last 5)2.803.00
coach days120.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
150.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.09
dominance (last 5)0.390.56
elo1415.861438.29
elo momentum (last 5)2.85-26.99
eye test v1-0.290.16
eye trend v1-0.19-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)56.4051.50
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
keeper form v10.760.82
league points12.0011.00
league rank14.0018.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4075.80
possession avg (last 5)46.8051.80
rest days3.273.27
scorer concentration0.250.29
season ppg1.201.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.404.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.8017.60
skill v1-0.11-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
state index-0.29-0.62
sterile dominance v10.27-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.260.33
threat rate (last 3)0.190.34
threat rate (last 5)0.200.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80