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Brescia 1–1 Spezia

← Serie B 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Manganiello

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia win38%2.70
Brescia win31%3.51
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia +0.2552%1.88
Spezia +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Nicolò Bertola · Spezia
32'⚽Giuseppe Di Serio · Spezia
48'🟨Giuseppe Di Serio · Spezia
49'🟨Luca Vignali · Spezia
52'⚽Matthias Verreth · Brescia
66'🟨Ante Matej Jurić · Brescia
70'🟨Gennaro Borrelli · Brescia
70'🟨Andrea Cistana · Brescia
82'🟨Lorenzo Dickmann · Brescia
87'🟨Luca Vignali · Spezia
87'🟥Luca Vignali · Spezia
90'🟨Birkir Bjarnason · Brescia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots11
3On target2
1Corners3
21Fouls22
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBresciaSpezia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.650.62
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Mario Rigamonti
coach days363.00363.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.03
dominance (last 5)0.460.56
elo1443.131521.66
elo momentum (last 5)-23.8132.75
eye test v10.600.19
eye trend v1-0.22-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)52.3049.40
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.680.74
league points13.0020.00
league rank9.003.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6077.00
possession avg (last 5)45.0046.40
rest days3.274.04
scorer concentration0.150.33
season ppg1.302.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.802.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.0014.80
skill v1-0.21-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)6.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.60
state index-0.570.50
sterile dominance v1-0.91-0.77
threat rate (last 10)0.320.29
threat rate (last 3)0.350.31
threat rate (last 5)0.340.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40