← Serie B 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Manganiello
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 38% | 2.70 |
| Brescia win | 31% | 3.51 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Spezia +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Nicolò Bertola · Spezia |
| 32' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Di Serio · Spezia |
| 48' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Di Serio · Spezia |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luca Vignali · Spezia |
| 52' | ⚽ | Matthias Verreth · Brescia |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ante Matej Jurić · Brescia |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gennaro Borrelli · Brescia |
| 70' | 🟨 | Andrea Cistana · Brescia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Dickmann · Brescia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Luca Vignali · Spezia |
| 87' | 🟥 | Luca Vignali · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Birkir Bjarnason · Brescia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Mario Rigamonti |
| coach days | 363.00 | 363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1443.13 | 1521.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.81 | 32.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 3.27 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |