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Cesena 2–0 Brescia

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Bonacina

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cesena win52%1.91
Draw26%3.70
Brescia win22%4.87

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia −0.7552%1.87
Cesena −0.7548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Elayis Tavsan · Cesena
15'⚽ (pen)Cristian Shpendi · Cesena
18'🟨Simone Bastoni · Cesena
33'🟨Giacomo Calò · Cesena
53'⚽ (pen)Cristian Shpendi · Cesena
54'🟨Matteo Pisseri · Cesena
76'🟨Davide Adorni · Brescia
90'🟨Giuseppe Prestia · Cesena

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots17
5On target2
5Corners7
13Fouls19
5Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCesenaBrescia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.690.68
cards avg (last 5)2.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOrogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi
coach days117.00360.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.801.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.512.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.11
dominance (last 5)0.440.48
elo1453.251455.67
elo momentum (last 5)-17.2410.14
eye test v10.750.98
eye trend v1-0.270.02
first sub minute (last 10)57.5054.40
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.570.67
league points11.0013.00
league rank13.006.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)51.0043.80
rest days5.916.91
scorer concentration0.210.15
season ppg1.221.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.0014.40
skill v10.60-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.905.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.606.20
state index-0.41-0.21
sterile dominance v10.19-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.290.33
threat rate (last 3)0.290.38
threat rate (last 5)0.260.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80