← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 41% | 43% | 2.39 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 29% | 31% | 3.47 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Cesena −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Prestia · Cesena |
| 14' | ⚽ (og) | Giuseppe Prestia · Sampdoria |
| 22' | ⚽ | Melle Meulensteen · Sampdoria |
| 27' | ⚽ | Emanuele Adamo · Cesena |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andrea Ciofi · Cesena |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nicholas Ioannou · Sampdoria |
| 55' | ⚽ | Melle Meulensteen · Sampdoria |
| 61' | ⚽ | Gennaro Tutino · Sampdoria |
| 64' | ⚽ | Augustus Kargbo · Cesena |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Venuti · Sampdoria |
| 88' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi |
| ⚽ |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sydney van Hooijdonk · Cesena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Augustus Kargbo · Cesena |
| 90' | 🟥 | Augustus Kargbo · Cesena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 111.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1489.02 | 1492.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.79 | -3.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 15.09 | 15.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 27.77 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |