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Salernitana 0–2 Spezia

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Salernitana win37%2.64
Spezia win32%3.20
Draw31%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia −0.2555%1.78
Salernitana −0.2545%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Petar Stojanović · Salernitana
52'🟨Andrés Tello · Salernitana
53'🟨Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana
54'⚽Edoardo Soleri · Spezia
73'⚽Nicolò Bertola · Spezia
90'🟨Gian Marco Ferrari · Salernitana
90'🟨Luca Vignali · Spezia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots14
5On target4
5Corners9
9Fouls15
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSalernitanaSpezia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.540.61
cards avg (last 5)3.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Arechi
coach days110.00353.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.401.00
corners against avg (last 5)1.803.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.754.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.07
dominance (last 5)0.550.51
elo1461.651509.27
elo momentum (last 5)-5.5532.32
eye test v10.240.14
eye trend v1-0.04-0.57
first sub minute (last 10)50.1051.20
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.650.72
league points11.0016.00
league rank9.002.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.2075.80
possession avg (last 5)56.6042.80
rest days13.0014.00
scorer concentration0.250.40
season ppg1.382.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.0013.20
skill v11.24-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.706.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
state index-0.110.33
sterile dominance v11.27-0.94
threat rate (last 10)0.220.34
threat rate (last 3)0.200.32
threat rate (last 5)0.180.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00