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Palermo 0–1 Salernitana

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Palermo win48%1.99
Draw27%3.50
Salernitana win24%4.16

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Salernitana −0.551%1.91
Palermo −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.91
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Roberto Soriano · Salernitana
21'⚽Andrés Tello · Salernitana
34'🟨Jacopo Segre · Palermo
69'🟨Lorenzo Amatucci · Salernitana
79'🟨Jayden Braaf · Salernitana
82'🟨Petar Stojanović · Salernitana
88'🟨Thomas Henry · Palermo
90'🟨Ajdin Hrustić · Salernitana

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots9
5On target4
4Corners2
16Fouls22
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPalermoSalernitana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.660.57
cards avg (last 5)2.003.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Renzo Barbera
coach days127.0097.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.003.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.801.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.772.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.13
dominance (last 5)0.420.60
elo1501.711448.50
elo momentum (last 5)42.41-9.63
eye test v10.230.74
eye trend v10.080.14
first sub minute (last 10)47.1050.60
form points (last 5)11.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.830.63
league points11.008.00
league rank7.0015.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6086.80
possession avg (last 5)43.6058.60
rest days5.817.00
scorer concentration0.290.29
season ppg1.571.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.004.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6013.00
skill v1-0.021.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.60
state index0.36-0.44
sterile dominance v1-0.160.98
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60