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Brescia 3–2 Cremonese

← Serie B 2024-25 · Mon, Sep 30, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win39%2.45
Draw31%3.12
Brescia win30%3.29

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia +0.2554%1.84
Cremonese +0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Michele Besaggio · Brescia
13'🟨Andrea Cistana · Brescia
34'⚽Gennaro Borrelli · Brescia
36'🟨Dennis Johnsen · Cremonese
38'🟨Marco Nasti · Cremonese
39'⚽Matthias Verreth · Brescia
42'🟨Ante Matej Jurić · Brescia
70'⚽Marco Nasti · Cremonese
81'⚽Cristian Buonaiuto · Cremonese
86'🟨Matthias Verreth · Brescia
86'🟨Jari Vandeputte · Cremonese
90'🟨Lorenzo Dickmann · Brescia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
14Shots19
7On target7
9Corners5
12Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBresciaCremonese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.680.58
cards avg (last 5)2.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Mario Rigamonti
coach days334.00395.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.102.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.500.60
elo1459.041564.00
elo momentum (last 5)-0.2919.82
eye test v10.380.24
eye trend v1-0.21-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)56.3054.90
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.690.72
league points9.0010.00
league rank9.007.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4086.00
possession avg (last 5)51.8060.60
rest days9.2310.00
scorer concentration0.290.29
season ppg1.501.67
shot diff avg (last 5)0.405.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.6014.40
skill v10.401.48
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.20
state index-0.010.52
sterile dominance v10.171.03
threat rate (last 10)0.310.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40