← Serie B 2024-25 · Mon, Sep 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Galipò
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 36% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +6% |
| Palermo win | 33% | 33% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Palermo +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Sudtirol |
| 20' | ⚽ | Rayyan Baniya · Palermo |
| 51' | ⚽ | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 55' | 🟨 | Francesco Di Mariano · Palermo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Matteo Rover · Sudtirol |
| 63' | ⚽ | Salim Diakité · Palermo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Desplanches · Palermo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Raphael Kofler · Sudtirol |
| 81' | ⚽ | Roberto Insigne · Palermo |
| 86' | 🟨 | Hamza El Kaouakibi · Sudtirol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days | 304.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1476.41 | 1492.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.47 | 9.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 9.19 | 9.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.73 | 25.88 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |