← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Carrarese win | 20% | 5.08 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Carrarese −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Leonardo Cerri · Carrarese |
| 18' | 🟨 | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 22' | 🟨 | Samuel Giovane · Carrarese |
| 24' | ⚽ | Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia |
| 26' | 🟨 | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 28' | 🟨 | Leonardo Cerri · Carrarese |
| 41' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Reca · Spezia |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Salvatore Esposito · Spezia |
| 61' | ⚽ | Francesco Pio Esposito · Spezia |
| 64' | 🟨 | Devid Eugene Bouah · Carrarese |
| 71' | 🟨 | Filippo Oliana · Carrarese |
| 74' | ⚽ | Filippo Oliana · Carrarese |
| 82' | ⚽ | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 11 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 326.00 | 265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1488.92 | 1467.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.92 | -32.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| league points | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | — |