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Salernitana 2–3 Pisa

← Serie B 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Bonacina

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win38%2.75
Salernitana win33%3.25
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa +057%1.69
Salernitana +043%2.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Nicholas Bonfanti · Pisa
14'⚽Franco Tongya · Salernitana
33'🟨Giovanni Bonfanti · Pisa
43'🟨Petar Stojanović · Salernitana
45'🟨Daniele Verde · Salernitana
45'⚽ (pen)Nicholas Bonfanti · Pisa
47'🟨Oliver Abildgaard · Pisa
62'⚽Matteo Tramoni · Pisa
90'🟨Nicola Dalmonte · Salernitana
90'🟨Adrian Šemper · Pisa
90'⚽ (pen)Simy · Salernitana

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
12Shots8
7On target5
8Corners0
8Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSalernitanaPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.530.65
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Arechi
coach days76.0076.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.10—
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.14—
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.792.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.15—
dominance (last 5)0.49—
elo1459.691469.54
elo momentum (last 5)9.0011.16
eye test v10.51-0.07
eye trend v10.200.05
first sub minute (last 10)53.7060.20
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.90—
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.10—
keeper form v10.640.73
league points6.008.00
league rank14.005.00
matches since blank0.0020.00
matches since clean sheet19.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.2074.60
possession avg (last 5)53.6048.60
rest days13.8814.88
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg1.502.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20—
shots for avg (last 5)13.40—
skill v10.96-0.34
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
state index-0.16-0.12
sterile dominance v10.40-0.75
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.220.38
threat rate (last 5)0.260.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40