← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 13, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Monaldi
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 41% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Modena win | 27% | 3.51 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Cesena −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.51 |
| Over | 36% | 2.67 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Cristian Shpendi · Cesena |
| 28' | ⚽ | Pedro Mendes · Modena |
| 32' | 🟨 | Matteo Cotali · Modena |
| 39' | ⚽ | Simone Bastoni · Cesena |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristian Shpendi · Cesena |
| 49' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 55' | ⚽ | Giovanni Zaro · Modena |
| 65' | 🟥 | Mattia Caldara · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi |
| coach days | 74.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | — |
| elo | 1470.49 | 1432.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.72 | 2.00 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.50 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |