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Frosinone Calcio 0–0 Juve Stabia

← Serie B 2024-25 Β· Sun, Sep 1, 06:30 PM UTC Β· ref: K. Bonacina

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win48%2.00
Draw30%3.28
Juve Stabia win22%4.35

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia βˆ’0.551%1.89
Frosinone Calcio βˆ’0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

53'πŸŸ₯Matteo Cichella Β· Frosinone Calcio
56'🟨Francesco Folino · Juve Stabia
59'🟨Marco Ruggero · Juve Stabia
72'🟨Ebrima Darboe · Frosinone Calcio
83'🟨Francesco Folino · Juve Stabia
83'πŸŸ₯Francesco Folino Β· Juve Stabia
86'🟨Riccardo Marchizza · Frosinone Calcio
89'🟨Matteo Baldi · Juve Stabia
90'🟨José Machín · Frosinone Calcio

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots6
3On target3
4Corners2
23Fouls13
3Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioJuve Stabia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15β€”
box share (last 5)0.570.65
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
coach days62.00428.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.07β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80β€”
corners against avg (last 5)3.80β€”
corners for avg (last 5)5.60β€”
corners volatility (last 10)2.952.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.10β€”
dominance (last 5)0.54β€”
elo1560.181428.12
elo momentum (last 5)-17.9914.27
eye test v10.740.33
eye trend v1-0.18-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)64.4052.70
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.50β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25β€”
keeper form v10.680.87
league points2.007.00
league rank19.003.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)46.0049.20
rest days5.004.00
season ppg0.672.33
shot diff avg (last 5)2.80β€”
shots for avg (last 5)15.40β€”
skill v1-0.29-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.20
state index-0.20-0.23
sterile dominance v1-1.00-0.38
threat rate (last 10)0.340.27
threat rate (last 3)0.270.23
threat rate (last 5)0.350.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00