← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Rutella
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 42% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Brescia win | 25% | 29% | 4.11 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Brescia −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 1.44 |
| Over | 33% | 2.92 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Zylif Muca · Brescia |
| 12' | ⚽ | Davide Adorni · Brescia |
| 29' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Paghera · Brescia |
| 39' | 🟨 | Nicolas Galazzi · Brescia |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ante Matej Jurić · Brescia |
| 60' | ⚽ | Niccolò Corrado · Brescia |
| 69' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Sudtirol |
| 76' | 🟨 | Andrea Cagnano · Sudtirol |
| 77' | 🟨 | Silvio Merkaj · Sudtirol |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dimitri Bisoli · Brescia |
| 85' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol |
| 86' | 🟨 | Andrea Papetti · Brescia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 274.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1481.20 | 1451.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.30 | -32.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 29.64 | 27.01 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |