β Serie B 2024-25 Β· Tue, Aug 27, 06:30 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Monaldi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sudtirol win | 38% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Carrarese win | 30% | 3.52 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Carrarese +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sudtirol +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 67% | 1.47 |
| Over | 33% | 2.88 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani |