← Serie B 2024-25 · Fri, Aug 23, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Scatena
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 42% | 35% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Bari win | 27% | 34% | 3.92 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Modena −0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Bari −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over | 36% | 2.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Thomas Battistella · Modena |
| 14' | 🟨 | Mattia Maita · Bari |
| 16' | 🟨 | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 17' | ⚽ | Andrija Novakovich · Bari |
| 39' | 🟨 | Giacomo Manzari · Bari |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Antonio Palumbo · Modena |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Bari |
| 62' | ⚽ | Pedro Mendes · Modena |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ettore Gliozzi · Modena |
| 80' | 🟨 | Costantino Favasuli · Bari |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Braglia |
| 🟨 |
| Giovanni Zaro · Modena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 144.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1430.12 | 1441.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.32 | 12.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.03 | 28.02 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |