← Serie B 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 17, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Collu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 49% | 55% | 1.98 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.30 | fair |
| Juve Stabia win | 22% | 20% | 4.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Bari −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.60 |
| Over | 39% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Francesco Folino · Juve Stabia |
| 24' | ⚽ | Marco Bellich · Juve Stabia |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marco Ruggero · Juve Stabia |
| 40' | 🟨 | Romano Floriani Mussolini · Juve Stabia |
| 43' | 🟨 | Davide Buglio · Juve Stabia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Francesco Folino · Juve Stabia |
| 54' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Sibilli · Bari |
| 57' | 🟨 | Cristian Andreoni · Juve Stabia |
| 70' | 🟨 | Marco Varnier · Juve Stabia |
| 80' | ⚽ | Gabriele Artistico · Juve Stabia |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale San Nicola |
| 82' |
| 🟨 |
| Raffaele Pucino · Bari |
| 90' | ⚽ | Giacomo Ricci · Bari |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 77.00 | 413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1463.10 | 1344.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.76 | -5.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 29.42 | 26.47 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |