← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Russell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 61% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.20 |
| Wigan win | 17% | 5.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Stevenage −1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Joe Taylor · Wigan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Kemp · Stevenage |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dan Sweeney · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 761.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1481.76 | 1441.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.74 | 17.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 72.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | -0.58 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.96 | 27.44 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.98 |