← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 69% | 1.35 |
| Northampton win | 16% | 5.75 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton +1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Plymouth +1.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Elliott List · Northampton |
| 18' | ⚽ | Michael Jacobs · Northampton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 34' | 🟨 | Owen Dale · Plymouth |
| 40' | ⚽ | Malachi Boateng · Plymouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Conor McCarthy · Northampton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
| 62' | 🟨 | Conor McCarthy · Northampton |
| 62' | 🟥 | Conor McCarthy · Northampton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Elliott List · Northampton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Malachi Boateng |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 26 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| 74' | ⚽ | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Plymouth |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ronan Curtis · Plymouth |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jake Evans · Northampton |
| coach days | 121.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1279.39 | 1556.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.97 | 24.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 1.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 35.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 57.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -2.06 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 26.84 |
| state index | -2.08 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -2.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.52 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 3.72 |