← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 47% | 1.96 |
| Mansfield win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Cardiff +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.36 |
| Under | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Ryan Sweeney · Mansfield |
| 23' | ⚽ | Lucas Akins · Mansfield |
| 26' | ⚽ | Lucas Akins · Mansfield |
| 61' | ⚽ | Isaak Davies · Cardiff |
| 63' | ⚽ | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 65' | 🟨 | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
| 66' | ⚽ | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
| 79' | ⚽ | Oliver Irow · Mansfield |
| 82' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Mansfield |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ronan Kpakio · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Irow · Mansfield |
| 90' | ⚽ | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 10 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| coach days | 274.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1496.38 | 1603.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.99 | 31.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 62.00 | 91.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.02 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 1.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 30.28 | 24.16 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 2.37 |