← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 52% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Burton win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient −0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Burton −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | William Forrester · Leyton Orient |
| 34' | ⚽ | Fábio Tavares · Burton |
| 52' | ⚽ | Dominic Ballard · Leyton Orient |
| 54' | 🟨 | James Morris · Leyton Orient |
| 55' | 🟨 | George Evans · Burton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Alex Hartridge · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leyton Orient | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Brisbane Road |
| coach days | 274.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1423.98 | 1422.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.83 | 9.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| league points | 51.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.77 |
| solidity v1 | -0.57 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 26.51 |
| state index | -1.03 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.55 |