← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Luton win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Bolton −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.36 |
| Under | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Max Conway · Bolton |
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Clark · Luton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bolton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Liam Walsh · Luton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Cissoko · Bolton |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Cissoko · Bolton |
| 62' | ⚽ | Hakeem Odofin · Luton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Chris Forino · Bolton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kasey Palmer · Luton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Davy van den Berg · Luton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Shayden Morris · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 12 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 274.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1539.49 | 1548.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.25 | 33.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| league points | 75.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 1.48 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 26.97 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 235.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.38 |