← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 28, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Chilowicz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 70% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.25 |
| Port Vale win | 12% | 7.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Stockport −1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.48 |
| Under | 36% | 2.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | — · Port Vale |
| 23' | ⚽ | Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel · Port Vale |
| 36' | 🟨 | Che Gardner · Stockport |
| 86' | ⚽ | Odin Bailey · Stockport |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Osborn · Stockport |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stockport | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Edgeley Park |
| coach days | 270.00 | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1552.03 | 1368.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.06 | 15.17 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 74.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 26.20 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |