← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 28, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Jamie O'Connor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 46% | 2.01 |
| Northampton win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Northampton +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Reyes Cleary · Barnsley |
| 55' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Barnsley |
| 87' | 🟨 | Elliott List · Northampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 117.00 | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1287.01 | 1431.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.22 | -0.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 35.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 26.08 |
| state index | -2.01 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |