← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Searle
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 71% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.50 |
| Port Vale win | 12% | 7.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Plymouth −1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 5' | 🟥 | Conor Hazard · Plymouth |
| 14' | ⚽ | Connor Hall · Port Vale |
| 16' | 🟨 | Ethon Archer · Port Vale |
| 25' | 🟨 | Connor Hall · Port Vale |
| 47' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 64' | 🟨 | Owen Dale · Plymouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 267.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1552.75 | 1372.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.96 | 28.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.74 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 67.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -1.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 25.67 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.80 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 2.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |