← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Wager
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 63% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.50 |
| Barnsley win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley −1.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Luton −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Nahki Wells · Luton |
| 26' | ⚽ | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Barnsley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Corey O'Keeffe · Barnsley |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 55' | 🟨 | Liam Walsh · Luton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bland · Barnsley |
| 79' | ⚽ | Kasey Palmer · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eoghan O'Connell · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days |
| 267.00 |
| 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1565.44 | 1506.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.96 | -10.80 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 68.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.46 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.11 | — |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 1.76 |