← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 78% | 1.17 |
| Draw | 14% | 6.50 |
| Northampton win | 8% | 11.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton −2 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Cardiff −2 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 1.33 |
| Under | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Ollie Tanner · Cardiff |
| 19' | ⚽ | Joel Colwill · Cardiff |
| 37' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 42' | 🟨 | Sam Hoskins · Northampton |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ollie Tanner · Cardiff |
| 68' | ⚽ | Jake Evans · Northampton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Alex Robertson · Cardiff |
| 86' | ⚽ | Yousef Salech · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days |
| 267.00 |
| 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1626.78 | 1373.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.28 | -44.71 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 88.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.76 | -1.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 1.52 |