← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 57% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Exeter win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Exeter −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.60 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Ilmari Niskanen · Exeter |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jasper Moon · Burton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luca Woodhouse · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 267.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1424.48 | 1400.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.30 | 18.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.86 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.80 |
| league points | 52.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -0.89 |
| solidity v1 | 0.97 | -2.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 27.35 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.71 |