← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 38% | 2.40 |
| Bradford win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Bradford +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Josh Neufville · Bradford |
| 36' | 🟨 | Joe Wright · Bradford |
| 72' | ⚽ | Johnny Kenny · Bolton |
| 79' | 🟨 | George Johnston · Bolton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Kayden Jackson · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chris Forino · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Valley Parade |
| coach days | 267.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.88 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1470.41 | 1539.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.82 | 9.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 73.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 30.30 | 26.76 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 56.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |