← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 46% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
| Doncaster win | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Doncaster +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Matt Phillips · Stevenage |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jay McGrath · Doncaster |
| 60' | 🟨 | Saxon Earley · Stevenage |
| 69' | ⚽ | Billy Sharp · Doncaster |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jack Senior · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 267.00 | 754.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1416.52 | 1481.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.40 | 17.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 56.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -1.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 28.78 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 1.19 |