← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Mulhall
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 63% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.20 |
| Rotherham win | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rotherham +1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Kasey Palmer · Luton |
| 43' | 🟨 | James Clarke · Rotherham |
| 44' | ⚽ | Kasey Palmer · Luton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Hakeem Odofin · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Keeley · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Aesseal New York Stadium |
| coach days | 20.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1354.34 | 1533.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.55 | 23.04 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 40.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.28 | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |