← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Doncaster win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Lincoln +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Robbie Gotts · Doncaster |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jack Senior · Doncaster |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 72' | ⚽ | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sean Grehan · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 21 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 263.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1424.49 | 1661.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.96 | 15.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.88 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 56.00 | 94.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 26.91 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |