← EFL League One 2025-26 · Tue, Apr 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J O'Connor
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 36% | 2.50 |
| Bradford win | 35% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Bradford +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Plymouth |
| 25' | 🟨 | Alex Mitchell · Plymouth |
| 36' | 🟨 | Malachi Boateng · Plymouth |
| 55' | 🟨 | Owen Dale · Plymouth |
| 72' | ⚽ | Will Swan · Bradford |
| 74' | 🟨 | Matthew Sorinola · Plymouth |
| 84' | 🟨 | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Lapslie · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Valley Parade |
| coach days | 263.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1469.73 | 1553.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.91 | 18.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 1.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| league points | 72.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 30.00 | 27.09 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -1.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |