← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 19, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Copeland
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 37% | 2.45 |
| Peterboro win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Peterboro +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Kgagelo Chauke · Burton |
| 44' | ⚽ | Charlie Webster · Burton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Matthew Garbett · Peterboro |
| 60' | ⚽ | Harry Leonard · Peterboro |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bradley Collins · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Peterboro | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Weston Homes Stadium |
| coach days | 261.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1418.12 | 1422.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.07 | 11.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| league points | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 2.72 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.41 | 26.15 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |