⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Wycombe 0–1 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2025-26 Β· Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Humphries

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe win51%1.81
Blackpool win25%3.75
Draw25%3.75

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wycombe βˆ’0.551%1.88
Blackpool βˆ’0.549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Cauley Woodrow · Wycombe
31'🟨Oliver Casey · Blackpool
48'⚽ (og)Luke Leahy · Blackpool
60'🟨Hayden Coulson · Blackpool
61'🟨Declan Skura · Wycombe
70'🟨Hayden Coulson · Blackpool
70'πŸŸ₯Hayden Coulson Β· Blackpool
86'🟨James Husband · Blackpool

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots5
6On target1
10Corners6
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWycombeBlackpool
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.770.78
cards avg (last 5)1.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueAdams Park
coach days260.00260.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.207.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.733.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.04
dominance (last 5)0.440.51
elo1509.121444.62
elo momentum (last 5)-35.5226.53
eye test v10.10-0.69
eye trend v1-0.570.63
first sub minute (last 10)51.4057.80
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.10
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.630.65
league points60.0051.00
league rank11.0017.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6062.60
possession avg (last 5)53.2037.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.30
season ppg1.401.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.2010.00
skill v10.34-1.56
solidity v1-0.650.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.002.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
squad age27.6326.20
state index-0.51-0.03
sterile dominance v10.42-1.44
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.170.32
threat rate (last 5)0.210.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.641.61
xg for avg (last 5)1.821.19