← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Hair
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 37% | 2.45 |
| Stevenage win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage +0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Lincoln +0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Louis Thompson · Stevenage |
| 17' | ⚽ | Tendayi Darikwa · Lincoln |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jamie Reid · Stevenage |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sonny Bradley · Lincoln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matt Phillips · Stevenage |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ivan Varfolomeev · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Street · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 747.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1470.77 | 1664.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.51 | 15.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.86 |
| league points | 67.00 | 93.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.59 | 27.25 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 2.56 |