← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 60% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.10 |
| Reading win | 17% | 5.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Cardiff +1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Rubin Colwill · Cardiff |
| 41' | 🟨 | Gabriel Osho · Cardiff |
| 55' | ⚽ | Omari Kellyman · Cardiff |
| 63' | 🟨 | Daniel Kyerewaa · Reading |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ryan Wintle · Cardiff |
| 64' | 🟨 | Paudie O’Connor · Reading |
| 69' | 🟨 | Finley Burns · Reading |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dylan Lawlor · Cardiff |
| 73' | ⚽ | Daniel Kyerewaa · Reading |
| 86' | ⚽ | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | William Fish · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| coach days |
| 260.00 |
| 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 10.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1578.99 | 1605.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.00 | -9.54 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| league points | 62.00 | 82.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 21.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 1.71 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 153.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 2.27 |