← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Baines
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 54% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| Northampton win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton +0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Doncaster +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Jack Burroughs · Northampton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Elliot Lee · Doncaster |
| 57' | ⚽ | Hakeeb Adelakun · Doncaster |
| 59' | 🟨 | Dean Campbell · Northampton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nesta Guinness-Walker · Northampton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Thimothee Lo-Tutala · Doncaster |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jake Evans · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elliott List · Northampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robbie Gotts · Doncaster |
| 90' | ⚽ | George Broadbent · Doncaster |
| 90' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 6 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 107.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1303.99 | 1411.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.68 | -1.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 35.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -1.43 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.35 | 27.98 |
| state index | -1.80 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.73 |