← EFL League One 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Swallow
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 49% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 25% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon +0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Plymouth +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Alex Mitchell · Plymouth |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 24' | 🟨 | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mathias Ross · Plymouth |
| 51' | ⚽ | Alistair Smith · AFC Wimbledon |
| 55' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Plymouth |
| 68' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Plymouth |
| 75' | 🟨 | Steve Seddon · AFC Wimbledon |
| 76' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| coach days | 260.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1363.08 | 1543.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.92 | 15.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | 1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.79 |
| league points | 50.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -1.27 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 27.44 |
| state index | -1.56 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 3.41 |